划分热带气旋风速的新标准——沙弗·辛姆普森热带气旋分级标准

引言这本用户手册描述的是有关热带气旋风速划分标准的改进和应用,该等级的划分给出了热带气旋风速与热带太平洋地区建筑结构、植被及沿海岸受灾害程度之间的关系。最初使用的划分标准是为了保证紧急管理部门能够更好地了解与预报的风速相关的风险,从而针对预报的热带气旋强度明确作出适当的防灾决策和建议。对于大多数人而言,将公告的风速值与潜在的危害直接联系起来是很困难的。例如:何种强度的风速可以掀掉铁皮屋顶、掀翻小汽车、可使海浪越过海堤冲击房屋或掀倒混凝土动力电杆。了解这些问题的答案需要紧急管理部门根据预报的风力直接向…     

Lagrangian measurements and modelling of fluid advection in the inner surf and swash zones

New laboratory and field data are presented on fluid advection into the swash zone. The data illustrate the region of the inner surf zone from which sediment can be directly advected into the swash zone during a single uprush, which is termed the advection length. Experiments were conducted by particle tracking in a Lagrangian reference frame, and were performed for monochromatic breaking waves, solitary bores, non-breaking solitary waves and field conditions. The advection length is normalised by the run-up length to give an advection ratio, A, and different advection ratios are identified on the basis of the experimental data. The data show that fluid enters the swash zone from a region of the inner surf zone that can extend a distance seaward of the bore collapse location that is approximately equal to half of the run-up length. This region is about eight times wider than the region predicted by the classical swash solution of Shen and Meyer [Shen, M.C., Meyer, R.E., 1963. Climb of a bore on a beach. Part 3. Runup. Journal of Fluid Mechanics 16, 113–125], as illustrated by Pritchard and Hogg [Pritchard, D., Hogg, A.J., 2005. On the transport of suspended sediment by a swash event on a plane beach. Coastal Engineering 52, 1–23]. Measured advection ratios for periodic waves show no significant trend with Iribarren number, consistent with self-similarity in typical swash flows. The data are compared to recent characteristic solutions of the non-linear shallow water wave (NLSW) equations and both finite difference and finite volume solutions of the NLSW equations.     

Measurement and modeling of bed shear stress under solitary waves

Direct measurements of bed shear stresses (using a shear cell apparatus) generated by non-breaking solitary waves are presented. The measurements were carried out over a smooth bed in laminar and transitional flow regimes (~ 10⁴ < R_e < ~ 10⁵). Measurements were carried out where the wave height to water depth (h/d) ratio varied between 0.12 and 0.68; maximum near bed velocity varied between 0.16 m/s and 0.51 m/s and the maximum total shear stress (sum of skin shear stress and Froude–Krylov force) varied between 0.386 Pa and 2.06 Pa. The total stress is important in determining the stability of submarine sediment and in sheet flow regimes. Analytical modeling was carried out to predict total and skin shear stresses using convolution integration methods forced with the free stream velocity and incorporating a range of eddy viscosity models. Wave friction factors were estimated from skin shear stress at different instances over the wave (viz., time of maximum positive total shear stress, maximum skin shear stress and at the time of maximum velocity) using both the maximum velocity and the instantaneous velocity at that phase of the wave cycle. Similarly, force coefficients obtained from total stress were estimated at time of maximum positive and negative total stress and at maximum velocity. Maximum positive total shear stress was approximately 1.5 times larger than minimum negative total stress. Modeled and measured positive bed shear stresses are well correlated using the best convolution model, but the model underestimates the data by about 4%. Friction factors are dependent on the choice of normalizing using the maximum velocity, as is conventional, or the instantaneous velocity. These differ because the stress is not in phase with the velocity in general. Friction factors are consistent with previous data for monochromatic waves, and vary inversely with the square-root of the Reynolds number. The total shear stress leads the free stream fluid velocity by approximately 50°, whereas the skin friction shear stress leads by about 30°, which is similar to that reported by earlier researchers.     

厦门东海域鱼类食物网研究

本文分析了厦门东海域58种鱼类的营养关系.根据对它们的食性分析,并依其食料生物的生态类群,将厦门东海域的鱼类食性类型分为:浮游生物食性、底栖生物食性、游泳动物食性、浮游生物和底栖生物、底栖生物和游泳动物食性等5种.该海域鱼类的营养级可分为4级:杂食性鱼类、低级肉食性鱼类、中级肉食性鱼类和高级肉食性鱼类,其中低级肉食性鱼类占优势,为63.79%.本文还分析了厦门东海域鱼类的食物网及其能量流动途径,并提出合理利用和保护厦门东海域鱼类资源的建议.     

准噶尔盆地复杂地区地层压力预测方法研究及应用

准噶尔盆地地层压力分布复杂,长期以来由于地层压力预测不准,在钻井过程中常出现井壁失稳、卡钻、井壁坍塌、钻井液漏失等工程事故,严重影响了钻井速度.为减少工程复杂问题,准确预测地层压力至关重要.为此,在准噶尔盆地开展了断层相关褶皱理论解释复杂构造、利用地质构造建模指导速度建模,求出每层的层速度和真倾角,再用Terzaghi 理论计算地层孔隙压力,计算结果证实地层压力预测精度显著提高.     

Crystal Structure and Chemical Composition of Ludwigite from Vranovac Ore Deposit (Boranja Mountain,Serbia)

The crystal structure of ludwigite from Vranovac ore deposit (Boranja Mt., Serbia) was refined using the X-ray powder diffraction (XRPD) Rietveld method in the space group Pbam to a final RB=7.45% and RF=5.26%. It has the unit cell dimensions of: a=9.2515(2) ?; b=12.3109(2) ?; c=3.03712(7) ?; and V=345.91(1) ?3. The calculated distances and angles are mostly in good agreement with the Mg2+-Fe2+ substitutions across the M(1) and M(3) sites, as well as with the Fe3+-Al3+ replacement in the M(4) site. However, the mean observed M(2)-O distance is considerably shorter than prescribed, due to a slight increase of the Fe3+ content in the M(2) site. Such replacement was compensated by slight increase of the Fe2+ content in the M(4) site, resulting in the (Mg1.48Fe2+0.46Fe3+0.05Mn0.02)2.01(Fe3+0.94Fe2+0.04Al0.02)1.00B1.00O5 composition. The formation temperature was estimated to be about 500–600°C. The influences of the various chemical compositions to the crystallographic parameters, M-O distances, M(3) and M(4) sites shift, distortion parameters and estimated valences, were also studied and compared with other reference samples.     

Dissolved oxygen criteria for freshwater fish in New Zealand: a revised approach

Maintenance of suitable conditions in lowland rivers for both fish passage and resident species is crucial to ensuring the long-term sustainability of fish populations. The dissolved oxygen concentration of water is a key factor controlling habitat quality for fish and a critical measure of stream health. Continued land use intensification and greater exploitation of water resources has contributed towards increasing the frequency and duration of low dissolved oxygen events in lowland rivers and the associated risk of adverse effects on fish communities. Revised guidelines are therefore proposed to support setting of biologically relevant dissolved oxygen limits for the protection of New Zealand freshwater fish communities. These guidelines account for both event magnitude and duration, identify different protection levels based on the risk of negative impacts and are based on current scientific knowledge on the tolerances of New Zealand fish species.     

The influence of seaward boundary conditions on swash zone hydrodynamics

The influence of the seaward boundary condition on the internal swash hydrodynamics is investigated. New numerical solutions of the characteristics form of the nonlinear shallow-water equations are presented and applied to describe the swash hydrodynamics forced by breaking wave run-up on a plane beach. The solutions depend on the specification of characteristic variables on the seaward boundary of the swash zone, equivalent to prescribing the flow depth or the flow velocity. It is shown that the analytical solution of Shen and Meyer [Shen, M.C., Meyer, R.E., 1963. Climb of a bore on a beach. Part 3. Runup. J. Fluid Mech. 16, 113–125] is a special case of the many possible solutions that can describe the swash flow, but one that does not appear appropriate for practical application for real waves. The physical significance of the boundary conditions is shown by writing the volume and momentum fluxes in terms of the characteristic variables. Results are presented that illustrate the dependence of internal flow depth and velocity on the boundary condition. This implies that the internal swash hydrodynamics depend on the shape and wavelength of the incident bore, which differs from the hydrodynamic similarity inherent in the analytical solution. A solution appropriate for long bores is compared to laboratory data to illustrate the difference from the analytical solution. The results are important in terms of determining overwash flows, flow forces and sediment dynamics in the run-up zone.     

Assessment of prediction performances of stochastic models: Monthly groundwater level prediction in Southern Italy

Stochastic modelling of hydrological time series with insufficient length and data gaps is a serious challenge since these problems significantly affect the reliability of statistical models predicting and forecasting skills. In this paper, we proposed a method for searching the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA) model parameters to predict the behavior of groundwater time series affected by the issues mentioned. Based on the analysis of statistical indices, 8 stations among 44 available within the Campania region(Italy) have been selected as the highest quality measurements. Different SARIMA models, with different autoregressive, moving average and differentiation orders had been used.By reviewing the criteria used to determine the consistency and goodness-of-fit of the model, it is revealed that the model with specific combination of parameters, SARIMA(0,1,3)(0,1,2) _(12), has a high R~2 value,larger than 92%, for each of the 8 selected stations. The same model has also good performances for what concern the forecasting skills, with an average NSE of about 96%. Therefore, this study has the potential to provide a new horizon for the simulation and reconstruction of groundwater time series within the investigated area.